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China has deployed its coast guard through the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near outlying Japanese territory as Beijing escalates strains over the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Japan but also claimed by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. The island's administration and citizens categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Japan, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, operating around the island over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added the island had dispatched military assets to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other nations, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards the island.