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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It frequently serves as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the prize. However, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or simply the most shocking upset.

Yet the latest competition is distinctly different. The pool of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners falling away and recent strugglers ascending in unison. In an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a wild and thrilling season, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still