Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
